Gold is quickly trading above the $1,400 level even though at the beginning of 2019, most people thought this level was unattainable for the commodity. Several factors have contributed to the growth of Gold to this unprecedented level.
The weakening dollar and easing monetary policy among leading economies seem to be the main reasons behind the growth of Gold to this level.
Simultaneously, the demand for Gold grows, from both investors and central banks. Many of the central banks are looking to increase their gold reserves, and this affects the demand directly. In doing the xauusd forecast, we take into account activities undertaken by the banks.
The Overview XAUUSD Forecast
The U.S. administration in 2019 has been welcoming of the weakening of the U.S. dollar. The medium-term forecasts right now indicate the Gold is turning into one of the most profitable assets to have. The trend in the first half of 2019 was a meteoric rise of Gold by 11%.
The forex forecasts indicate that with the situations around the world being what they are, the trend will most likely continue into 2020. The easing of monetary policy, the decline in growth rates of most world economies, and the unresolved trade conflicts will continue to drive up the price of Gold.
At the time of writing this, an ounce is going for $1,579. This price is expected to rise as 2020 got off to a tumultuous start. Within 72 hours, the U.S. aggressively launched an airstrike in Iran, and the balance of world politics shifted.
What’s ahead of us in the xauusd forecast? Expect it to rise. However, we need to look at some of the most important things and see how they affect the xauusd news.
The Main Factors That Affect Gold Prices
To know what happens to Gold and have an accurate way of doing an xauusd forecast, we need to understand what affects it, and the following are some of the main things we look to for answers;
The Fed (Monetary Policy)
Because of something we call ‘opportunity cost,’ interest rates have a considerable influence on prices everywhere. The Federal Reserve sets these rates. Opportunity cost, in a nutshell, is the practice of giving up an almost-guaranteed gain in one investment because of the probability that there is something more to be gained from a different venture.
With the interest rates being at historic lows, bonds and other instruments of government finance are not bringing in as many returns as expected. They are fewer returns than the national inflation rate. With this, there is nominal gain but real loss of money.
Rising interest rates boost interest-based assets and make opportunity costs go up. Investors are, therefore, more likely to forgo GoldGold when the lending rates go up. In this way, The Fed affects the price of GoldGold, and we can make an xauusd forecast.
Aside from xauusd news, the economic data can drive gold prices too. Job reports, manufacturing, employment rates, GDP, monetary policy, wages, and other indicators can make the prices of gold rise or fall.
It is not always like this, but more often than not, when doing the xauusd forecast, we notice that a stronger U.S. economy, lowered unemployment rates, GDP of above 2%, and an expansion in manufacturing pushes prices of GoldGold down.
If you flip this scenario on its head, our xauusd forecast shows that The Fed creates a dovish situation on the interest rates and gold prices go up.
Supply and Demand
Even though people tend to overlook this, it is usually an essential factor in the xauusd forecast we make. An increase in the demand with a low supply will push up the prices, and if you slip that situation, the opposite is true.
A growing demand and controlled supply are the reasons why the prices of GoldGold have gone up to the levels they have reached in recent times. There are other contributing factors to this. But, the supply and demand of anything have a hand in changes in the price that you may see.
When there is a rise in the price of good and services, we call that inflation. It is not always guaranteed, but the rising levels of inflation tend to push up the prices of Gold. Inflation is usually a sign that there is economic growth and expansion.
During times like this, the Federal Reserve will move to increase the money supply. That has the effect of diluting the value of the money already in circulation. That makes it more expensive to buy assets that are viewed as a store of value. XAUUSD Forecast focus on this.
The push and pull between interest rates, inflation, and other factors can cause gold prices to shift.
Movements of Currency
Currencies, especially the U.S. dollar, is a strong influencer of price. The U.S. dollar has the most potent effect because GoldGold is dollar-denominated. If the U.S. dollar falls, the prices of GoldGold automatically go up. XAUUSD Forecast makes a point to monitor the dollar because of this.
With the weakening of the U.S. dollar in recent times and an unperturbed administration, the prices of GoldGold have gone up beyond what was possible not too long ago. Because of the inverse relationship, the dollar has with GoldGold, whenever the dollar increases in terms of value, gold prices go down.
It is hard to point to one factor that can be termed as uncertainty. Because uncertainty is harder to quantify, xauusd news comes in handy when trying to get a grip on how people view the changing economic times. The stock market loves GoldGold but is usually the enemy of gold prices.
Uncertainty can be anything from not knowing the outcome of Brexit and how hard it will impact the E.U. and Britain’s economy. It could be not knowing what Iran means when they vow revenge for the Air Strike early in 2020 and other things that make the general public uneasy.
In doing the xauusd forecast, we try to look at all the psychological factors and how they affect investors. All events differ. It is all about knowing what each one will do.