We Expect Usdcad first up and then down so if you want to trade on usdcad pair then u must waiting for up side and then open sell positions.
We believe that the Bank will hold its powder dry but look for it to deliver a hawkish hold, signaling another hike next month and room for more next year. Over the course of 2018, the market has started to frontrun expectations pricing in 63bp over the coming year. The 2y US/CA spread also turned negative for the first time since 2015 while USDCAD made a convincing break of the recent lows. The break of the recent lows now opens up some air pockets to 1.213. Still, given the rapid adjustment in Canadian rates and our view that the BoC remains on hold, we look fro some profit taking first. We are also cautious about the possible drag a 10% CAD appreciation will have on inflation, which favors hiking next month. Even so, the upbeat growth momentum and softer USD backdrop should continue to favor selling into USDCAD rallies. We look to get short USDCAD on moves back towards 1.26.